Hi! Here is a MAGIC TRICK. Knowing absolutely nothing about you other than that you are a human being who is alive today, I know something incredibly important about you: I know that you are the product of massive sacrifices made on your behalf, by people who loved you, but who never knew your name. […]

A recent conversation about longtermism raised the question of an “epistemic discount rate.” Yes, the future definitely matters as much as the present. But we can’t reason with as much certainty about the future. To what extent should we discount our conclusions about future outcomes? The first response raised a great retort that I think […]